Prosperity for planet is possible if Earth¿s critical resources are better shared

The report is co-authored by over sixty natural and social scientists from the Earth Commission and its working groups, involving ICTA-UAB associated researcher Joan David Tàbara. The Earth Commission is an international, interdisciplinary science commission hosted by Future Earth, and the scientific cornerstone of the Global Commons Alliance. The report is led by Prof. Joyeeta Gupta, Prof. Xuemei Bai, and Prof. Diana Liverman and builds on the Safe and Just Earth System Boundaries published in Nature last year, which found that most of the vital limits within which people and the planet can thrive have been surpassed.
  

Findings: The Safe and Just Space is shrinking 

This new paper identifies the “Safe and Just Space” – within which harm to humans and nature can be minimised while everyone can be provided for – and sets out the paths to reach and stay in this Space.  

The Earth System Boundaries published last year can be seen as the “ceiling” for human extraction of natural resources and pollution, within which the Earth systems can remain stable and resilient, and people can be safe from harm. Now, scientists have added a “foundation” by showing us what the global population needs from the Earth system, in order to live a life free from poverty. This is the first time scientists have quantified safety (a stable planet) and justice (people being protected from harm) in the same units – demonstrating that justice is a prerequisite for the safety of the planet and people. The paper builds on fundamental ideas of Earth System Justice, published in Nature Sustainability and Environemntal Politics.  

In this new work, the researchers made projections forwards to 2050, and found that the “Safe and Just Space” will shrink over time, unless urgent transformations are made. For climate specifically they found that, if significant changes aren’t made now, by 2050 there will be no Safe and Just Space left. That means that even if everyone on the planet only had access to the resources necessary for a basic standard of living in 2050, the Earth will still be outside the climate boundary. Earth systems face the risk of crossing dangerous tipping points which would cause further significant harm to people around the world – unless energy, food and urban systems are urgently transformed. 

They also found that inequalities and overconsumption of finite resources by a minority are key drivers of this shrinking. Providing minimum resources for those who don’t currently have enough would add much less pressure on the Earth system than that currently caused by the minority who use far greater resources. 

The research also looked at where on the planet the Safe and Just boundaries have been breached, and overlayed this with people living in poverty who are exposed to harm from climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution and water shortages. The findings show that already vulnerable communities are often the most affected by Earth system change that impacts the health of people and ecosystems – but everyone, including the wealthy, is at risk.
 

Global boundaries – useful for local actors 

For global boundaries to make a difference in reality, they have to be down-scaled to allow countries, cities, companies and citizens to take action in line with them. The Earth System Boundaries are designed to be suitable for down-scaling and the Safe and Just Space provides budgets that can be allocated to local actors. The Commission has reviewed how the boundaries can be downscaled to be useful in particular for companies and cities, and how their ‘fair shares’ of resources and responsibilities can be identified. By, for instance, adopting science-based targets, they can become better stewards of Earth’s natural resources.  

Xuemei Bai, member of the Earth Commission, Distinguished Professor at Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University, said: “Companies and cities have a huge potential to make a difference, especially if they work towards the same goal – ensuring the planet can provide for everyone long-term. They are more nimble and flexible than states, and can reduce their pressure on the planet by setting science-based targets in line with our findings.” 

Urgent transformations required  

The Safe and Just Space is the only remaining space rich in opportunities – in which people and the planet will remain able to thrive. To reach this space, science-based targets are not enough. Tthe paper calls for change in three areas:  

• Firstly, a well- coordinated, intentional effort between policymakers, businesses, civil society and communities can push for changes to how we run the economy and find new policies and funding mechanisms that can address inequality whilst reducing pressure on nature and climate.  

• Secondly, fundamental to the transformation is more efficient and effective management, sharing and usage of resources at every level of society – including addressing the excess consumption of some communities which is limiting access to basic resources for those who need them the most.  

• Thirdly, investment in sustainable and affordable technologies is essential to help us use fewer resources and to reopen the Safe and Just Space for all – particularly where there is little or no space left.  

“These are profound transformations of our societies, requiring effective governance from local to global levels. We have the knowledge and the tools. This work illuminates that space where all people, businesses and economies can thrive on a healthy planet. Any efforts to protect the planet must take into account the needs of the millions of people that don’t even have access to the basics right now.

Now decision makers need to implement policies and activities that can address inequality whilst reducing pressure on nature and climate”, said Diana Liverman, Regents Professor of Geography, Development and Environment at the University of Arizona, member of the Earth Commission and co-lead of its transformations working group until 2023.